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Fake Fashion — Real Problem
Funding The Dark Side Of Designer Counterfeits
As the global market grows hungrier for couture style, designer knockoffs have rolled out quicker and cheaper, and are gaining consumer acceptance. But the dark side of the style wars is also growing more sophisticated and aggressive: counterfeit fashions, a cheap and seemingly harmless shortcut to glamour, are making new inroads out of the black market and into American malls and boutiques. They may not all have a seedy underbelly waiting to reap the profits, but the percentage that does is staggering. The fact is, there’s no way to tell where the money will end up — by and large, counterfeit apparel supports sweatshops, child labor, totalitarian governments, and international terrorism.
In contrast, designer knockoffs trade, often quite brazenly, on the innovations of leading designers. While Karl Lagerfeld and Louis Vuitton may cry theft, savvy consumers are less upset. This year’s favorite Oscar frock will be a prom staple via copyists like ABS and edressme.com. European "fast fashion" boutiques like Zara and TopShop have exploded in Europe (Spain’s Zara boasts 2.8 billion euro in annual revenue; TopShop’s parent company, Arcadia Group, has holdings worth 1.7 billion pounds), and they are coming to America in force very soon.
But when do haute couture knockoffs become ripoffs? Intellectual property attorney Susan Scafidi says, "It’s all about the label. The underlying design is not protected at all under U.S. law." As the author of Who Owns Culture? and curator of fashion legal news clearinghouse counterfeitchic.com, Scafidi polices the scoundrels of the fashion industry, where clear-cut imitation can be tough to prove in court. "It depends on how close the knockoff is to the original. If it’s an interpretation of a trend — say, everyone in yellow dresses — then that’s something the industry wants, because it will sell more yellow dresses. If the knockoff is very literal down to the last detail, there’s a problem. At the high end of the industry, there are strong social norms against that kind of copying." Some iconic houses have even used their lines to comment on the rising tide of mimicry. Designer Yohji Yamamoto shocked Paris last month with a fall collection emblazoned with an unsubtle imitation of the oft-counterfeited Louis Vuitton monogram.
The domestic knockoff market took in $10 billion last year, and runs the gamut from clever reinventions of pricey couture accessories, such as the rubber pseudo-Gucci bag, to rank imitations.
A recent U.K. survey showed that many discriminating, upscale consumers knowingly buy fake fashion. The misperception of buying fakes as harmless persists, where the victims are lofty designers and corporations. Counterfeiters thrive on this attitude, which annually puts an estimated $500 billion worldwide — much of it from America — in uncertain hands. According to New York police commissioner Raymond Kelly, the 2004 Madrid bombings were partially funded by sales of counterfeit goods.
With Korea and Vietnam close behind them, China accounts for 60 percent of America’s counterfeit merchandise. Despite its burgeoning economic clout, China remains a totalitarian state with a dismal human rights record. Critics observe that letting counterfeit brand names siphon wealth off Western economies seems to benefit China much more than would an honest crackdown.
International counterfeit traffic rose 1000 percent from 1998 to 2004. In 2005, the president signed HR32, the Stop Counterfeiting In Manufactured Goods Act, which set prison sentences and forfeiture provisions, as well as singling out counterfeit labels, to reflect the problem. But international customs officials say they’re losing.
Designer knockoffs are a far less serious, but more slippery problem, better left to the civil courts, and the innovation of the couturiers themselves. "A lot of the smarter fashion houses are learning to knock themselves off," Scafidi points out. "Fifty years ago, the couture created, and everyone copied. Now, you have Armani doing everything from couture to jeans and T-shirts."
Scafidi notes that removing fake goods from the landscape is like "cleaning up the graffiti and broken glass that makes the neighborhood look so dangerous," thus discouraging more serious crime. But until consumers realize what their money is feeding, the counterfeiters will persist.
The real root of the problem lies in getting consumers to fixate less on the status of labels, and to embrace the power of personal style. Local style consultant Leonard Simpson (www.fashionforward.com) nails the crux of the problem, and gets to the heart of the solution. "Everyone should be able to enjoy fashion, color, and art. It’s what keeps us alive. But if the label is what’s making them happy, then they should ask themselves why they like the bag. If you can afford Louis Vuitton, then get it. But if you can’t, then find something artistically beautiful that you can; find a younger designer, or design it yourself. Be a leader in fashion and in self-esteem. Don’t be a follower."
— Cody Goodfellow
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Open Air Indicators
Years ago, glancing at the ads in the newspaper could give a quick indication of the strength of the economy — lots of ads suggested a good economy. Today, much has moved online and the newspaper index is a bit harder to use, but you can still glean economic information by studying a different kind of print ad: clothing ads. Style of dress is a window into how confident and secure people feel, and this feeling of security directly relates to the strength of the economy.
The Hemline Indicator
Perhaps the most well known open air indicator is the hemline indicator. First discovered by economist Paul Montgomery, who publishes a newsletter called Universal Economics, it’s for anyone who wants a real leg up on the stock market. The idea is this: As skirt hemlines go up, so does the market. When they start creeping back down, so does the market.
Studies proved that hemlines correlated with the stock market from at least 1917 through 1967, and given the absence of new studies on hemlines, there is little reason to think the correlation has subsided.
The theory is that when the nation’s mood is somber, clothing becomes modest and conservative. People are less willing to speculate, and they don’t want to take many chances. When the economy is doing well, people feel free to experiment and let go. When hemlines rise, they rise across the board. Typically, stocks follow.
Suits, Dry Cleaners, And Neckties
Ties and scarves do not get higher on the body, but their styles change from loud to muted and back again, and those changes are a second open air indicator of market strength. I first heard about the necktie indicator when I was just beginning to manage money in the early 1980s.
The Dow was under 1,000, interest rates were high, and the conventional wisdom said that the economy would continue to flounder.
The predominant men’s fashion was muted, conservative ties and new business suits. Women wore basic scarves with new garments. Within four years, the market had almost tripled.
By 1990, on the eve of what would prove to be a severe recession, brightly colored scarves and ties were in fashion both for men and women and the nation’s retailers were reporting that few new garments were selling.
The key to this indicator is not the tie, but the suit it decorates. Just before and during a recession, people are wearing their older garments longer, and to dress them up, they buy new ties and scarves. During economic expansion, people buy new garments and no longer need to try to make old suits look new.
This same principle governs dry cleaning, which is a similar marker of market strength. When the economy is doing well, people do not hesitate to take clothes to the dry cleaner. During a downturn, people try to get a few extra uses out of a suit.
Open Air Information
None of these indicators should be taken too seriously, although they do provide interesting information about the market. Right now, it suggests that good times are ahead of us. Hemlines are rising, and fashion designers are expecting them to continue to rise. The nation’s dry cleaners are reporting strong profits. The one mixed indicator is the necktie indicator. Discount retailers like Ross and Target are reporting very strong revenue growth, which suggests bargain hunting. But it’s far too early to predict a recession based on that. The fact is that investors have been ignoring the stock market for the better part of this decade, and most open air indicators are just one more form of evidence that we are primed for major stock growth.
— Gabriel Wisdom, host of Financial Wisdom on the Business Talk Radio Network (www.garbrielwisdom.com)
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